nov-dec-2020

Sorting Out the 2020 Election With a record voter turnout, stark choices, and control of Congress and the White House on the line, the 2020 election provided no shortage of suspense, and surprises. A panel of Washington insiders spoke to the historic election and more during the Government Affairs Seminar. Led by Julian Heron, Principal in the Washington, D.C. law firm SJ Lake & Heron, which represents Blue Diamond Growers in the nation’s capital, the panelists shed some light on the election outcome — as far as it was known at the time — and possible policy directions and leadership changes. Guest panelists included Dave Juday, Chief Economist, SJ Lake & Heron; Congressman Jimmy Panetta, representing District 20 along California’s Central Coast; former Congressman Jeff Denham, with the Washington, D.C. law firm K & L Gates; with Alicia Rockwell, Director, Government and Public Affairs, hosting. Juday opened with his take on the winners and losers in the election. “The losers were the pollsters. In 2018 they were within the margin of error, but on the wrong side, and it got worse from that point on. The winners were the fundraisers. This was the most expensive federal election, by double, that we have ever seen — $14 billion, and that is before the Georgia Senate runoff election in January that is expected to consume another half-billion dollars.” Sharply contested state races added huge sums to the tally as the parties fought for crucial seats — with this being a census year, potential redistricting is on the line. Redistricting is a once-a-decade process of redrawing political boundaries for elective offices following the U.S. Census. Roughly half of the states assign redistricting to the state legislators. The remainder leave it to the courts or special panels. For the years 2011 to 2021, Californian voters approved assigning the task to the California Citizens Redistricting Commission. Potential Changes in Trade Policy With a new incoming administration under President-elect Biden, the panel offered thoughts on presidential appointments and policy directions. Juday noted that replacing California Senator Harris will be an immediate task, but several of the candidates are members of the House, which cannot afford to lose many Democrat members. The same goes for the Secretary of Agriculture and U.S. Trade Representative posts. Under President-elect Biden’s administration, Juday thinks the trade agenda and approach would likely shift from President Trump’s “America First”, bilateral trade deals, aggressive tariffs, and renegotiations of trade deals to a “carrot instead of a stick” approach with an emphasis on multilateral trade deals. Juday also noted that trade would not likely be an early priority under President- elect Biden, who would emphasize domestic policy. China is the big issue, Juday said. Under President-elect Biden, the U.S. approach to China would be different, but it is not clear what that could be. Foreign policy with China could become a bipartisan effort on issues like Hong Kong, Uighurs, technology transfer and other issues. The Biden administration would likely be more engaged with U.S. allies, the World Trade Organization (WTO) and possibly rejoin the regional Asian Trade Agreement — Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans- Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The CPTPP, also known as the TPP11, evolved from the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiated in the Obama administration. Juday cautioned, “The big question is what China will challenge the U.S. with ? They recently signed two big trade agreement in two weeks. Obviously, they are testing the waters!” Other areas of potential change in trade policy include the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). President-elect Biden’s ANNUAL GROWERS MEETING 2 6 A L M O N D F A C T S