Today the National Agricultural Statistical Service announced the objective estimate for the 2019 California Almond crop at 2.20 billion pounds. This is based on 1.17 million bearing acres. Average nut set is down 17.8% from last year. This estimate is a surprise to the industry. The subjective estimate in May was 2.5 billion pounds. Previously, the largest variance between the subjective and objective estimates was in 2013. That year the industry subjective estimate was 2 billion pounds and the objective was 1.85 billion pounds. The crop ended up at 2.0 billion pounds. Furthermore, various sources throughout the industry over the last few months anticipated a number between 2.42 to 2.57 billion pounds for the 2019 crop. For the 2018 crop year the objective estimate of 2.45 billion pounds proved to be overly optimistic as the final number did not reach 2.3 billion pounds…[Read More]